Analysis: oil price and Central Asia Metals
As conflict in the Middle East send the price of oil higher, a miner in North Macedonia has headed sharply lower. Independent analyst Alistair Strang studies the outlook for both.
4th March 2026 07:39
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
As an exercise in cynicism, we opted to run the price of oil through a similar movement pattern to that experienced when the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off. Back then, we regarded the price inflation of Brent crude as very contrived, an artificial construct which almost felt it was simply to satisfy media expectations. The actual increase in the price of Brent realistically happened well before Russia started the conflict.
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When we throw the Russia/Ukraine model at Brent currently, there appears to be the possibility of movement above $82.5 bringing a further lift to an initial $87.3 with our longer-term (or later that day) secondary calculating at $97. This secondary target is an issue, representing a logical “top” when we apply the growth model from 2022.
What is extremely frustrating is that until mid-February, Brent had been residing in a zone where the threat of reversal to an eventual $50 made a lot of sense. The preceding eight months had seen the market try every trick to avoid triggering a sharp drop.
But, long story short, we suspect Brent shall top out at $97.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
As for Central Asia Metals (LSE:CAML), the share price is currently paying the price for a company news report of a fairly major “Ooops”, declaring the life potential of its mine in Macedonia should be reduced by five years until 2034. Probably a bad idea to declare your corporate Golden Goose is approaching a Best Before date!
There is something fascinating about the reversal inflicted on the share as it suggests weakness below 173p could bring a drop to 158p and, visually, a strong suggestion of a bounce.
Our reasoning for this relates to the Blue downtrend since 2023 and our official breakout above Blue happening at 157p. This tends to strongly indicate a probable level for a rebound anytime soon. However, should 158p break, our secondary calculates at a future 131p, a price level which we would find difficult to justify given the historical picture.
Our alternate scenario suggests above 239p would be needed to signal the drop cycle has been a terrible mistake. In such a position, we would anticipate ongoing movement to an initial 268p with our longer-term secondary, if bettered, working out at a future 327p and some hesitation.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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