eyeQ: what our model says about Next shares
Experts at eyeQ use AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Here, it examines the well-respected FTSE 100 company.
5th August 2026 09:03
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Next
Macro Relevance: 46%
Model Value: 14,784.50p
Fair Value Gap: +6.02% premium to model value
Data correct as at 5 August 2026. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Next (LSE:NXT)’s share price is up around 5% this morning and at all-time highs. Second-quarter earnings were strong, and even though they expect sales growth to moderate over the second half of the year, they were confident enough to lift guidance for the full year’s trading results.
Happy days all round then? Yes and no.
The macro picture is positive in the sense that eyeQ model value is already in a clear uptrend (up nearly 9% in 2026) and is picking up momentum - eyeQ model value has risen 5.6% in the last month alone.
There is, however, a “but”. The stock has rallied further and faster than improving macro conditions. It now sits around 6% above our 14,785p macro fair value. That would be enough to trigger a new bearish signal if Next were in a macro regime. An eyeQ macro relevance score of 46% is too low for Next to be deemed a macro-driven stock (remember 65% is the key threshold for that).
So, no official signal. And clear evidence that, in the big scheme of things, the macro environment is supportive. But, at these levels, not one we’d be inclined to tactically chase.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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Disclosure
We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.
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