HSBC target and our worries about bank sector share prices
Unlike most UK high street lenders, this Far East-focused player has smashed through record highs. But what now? Independent analyst Alistair Strang gives his view.
25th February 2026 07:49
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
In our previous review of HSBC Holdings (LSE:HSBA) almost a year ago, the share price was 863p and we speculated on a future target of 1,095p. Obviously, this target level was achieved and exceeded with an exquisite set of dance steps last November as shown on the fascinating chart excerpt below.
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We found it fascinating as it confirmed our target level and proved it could be bettered. On the 2025 report chart, we painted 1,201p as a potential future level but didn’t bother mentioning it, expecting to revisit the share long before it became an issue. This third target level was also attained, confirmed, and exceeded in early January, again shown on a chart extract below.
It was a major oops, though, with curiously similar dance steps to the November 2025 target breach.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Important: Trends and Targets charts only incorporate official share count consolidations, ignoring rights issues where investors have a choice as to whether to participate.
HSBC opted to join the UK banking share price party and has (thus far) exhibited extraordinary strength.
From our perspective, the next hurdle for the share resides at 1,315p, a target level recently attained and even very slightly exceeded, the share price closing a session at 1,318p in early February. The big question now is simple - can we anticipate even more flamboyance in the period ahead?
We’re inclined to advocate caution. Currently, above 1,323p paints 1,376p as an initial target with our secondary, if bettered, at a future 1,409p. We are more than a little nervous, thanks to the Big Picture.
Our calculations, which date back to the banking crisis of 2009, suggest we should only admit 1,376p as a major target. Anything higher, in this instance, would take the share into difficult territory, making us suspect some real hesitation should be anticipated at 1,376p. In fact, given the share value, this could be effectively anytime now.
If trouble is planned, below 1,222p risks becoming an issue as this threatens reversal down to an initial 1,151p with our secondary, if broken, working out at 1,133p and an almost certain bounce.
Once again, we’re getting a little worried about banking sector prices.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Important: Trends and Targets charts only incorporate official share count consolidations, ignoring rights issues where investors have a choice as to whether to participate.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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