Must read: oil, gold, Greggs, Spring Statement

Global markets 

Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment, interactive investor says, “European markets have opened lower again with the German DAX and FTSE 100 both down over 2%. 

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Almost all stocks on the FTSE 100 are in the red with only one notable gainer, Smith & Nephew (LSE:SN.) thanks to a price target upgrade from Barclays. Miners and financials are among the biggest losers including Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO), Barclays (LSE:BARC), Anglo American (LSE:AAL) and Prudential (LSE:PRU), reflecting the increased geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Intertek Group (LSE:ITRK) has also plunged on the back of earnings.  

Oil continues its ascent with Brent and WTI both up close to 4%, extending gains after Brent crude jumped over 7% on Monday. This was its biggest daily gain since March 2022, pushing the benchmark above $80 a barrel and sparking fears about resurgent inflation. European natural gas prices are also surging around 20% this morning after Qatar decided to stop production. The war between Iran and the US and Israel has intensified after a US embassy in Riyadh was reportedly hit by drones and Israel attacked Tehran and Beirut. 

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Gold and the dollar are also staging gains with the precious metal logging its fifth consecutive positive day, rallying beyond Monday’s four-week high.  The US dollar is pushing higher against the euro, pound, yen and Aussie dollar. 

Despite the intensity of the conflict, US equities were remarkably resilient on Monday, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closing modestly higher while the Dow ended just below the flatline. However, US futures are pointing to a weaker session on Wall Street with all three major averages on track to open down by more than 1% each.”

Greggs 

Victoria says, “Shares in Greggs (LSE:GRG) are under pressure after 2025 underlying profit before tax fell to £171.9 million versus £189.8 million a year ago. Full-year sales rose by 6.8% to £2.15 billion however in the first nine weeks of 2026, like-for-like sales growth slowed to 1.6% versus 2.9% in the Christmas quarter. 

Investors were spooked by a weak start to the year for the bakery chain best known for its sausage rolls and steak bakes. Greggs struck a cautious tone, saying 2026 will be ‘another tough year for the consumer’. 

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Greggs has been attempting to drive greater spending by launching an affordable meal deal in September last year to appeal to hungry grab-and-go workers. It also extended its bake-at-home range products into Tesco stores last year to broaden its reach. However, investors are struggling to look beyond concerns about the rapid proliferation of weight loss drugs like Mounjaro and Wegovy, that supress appetite and could weigh on demand for Greggs’ high calorie offering. And with a weak start to the year in terms of sales, there are worries that this could be the beginning of a more pronounced slowdown. 

Shares are down around 25% over the past year and down around 7% year-to-date. Analysts are on the fence when it comes to Greggs, with a consensus hold recommendation on the stock, according to Refinitiv.” 

Spring Statement

Craig Rickman, Personal Finance editor, interactive investor says, “This year’s Spring Statement is gearing up to be a low-key affair, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to keep her pledge to restrict big policy changes to the Autumn Budget.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the event, which is set to last less than half an hour, will fail to deliver any talking points. At the very least we should gauge how the previous Budget’s policy measures, alongside the government’s watered down inheritance tax reforms to farms and businesses, has impacted the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts.

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The chief concern is that a pessimistic outlook could spark a repeat of the frenzied tax-hiking speculation we witnessed before the current government’s first two major fiscal events. But such an outcome from today's address seems unlikely, for a couple of reasons. First, the decision to hold a late Autumn Budget in 2025 means only a few months have passed for the UK’s economic picture to notably improve or worsen.

Second, while the data may offer clues on whether Reeves’s headroom has shrunk or grown, the chancellor announced last year that tracking progress against her self-imposed fiscal rules will be reserved for the Autumn event."